Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
