A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
